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If the current year had already been poised as the most challenging period in modern history for the post-1945 rules-based world order, recent days has been among the most devastating so far. Israel deepened its disregard for international conventions after deploying a squadron of warplanes toward the Gulf state, bombing representatives from Hamas engaged in ceasefire talks in Doha. The last meaningful forum for diplomatic negotiation may now have vanished completely.

No fewer than 19 Russian drones breached the territorial skies of Poland. For the first time, allied military aircraft was engaged against enemy targets inside a Nato country. Whether the incursion resulted from an error or intentional testing by Moscow, according to analysts in the West, this was the nearest the world has come to open conflict since the second world war,” the Polish leader, Donald Tusk, said.

Subsequently, Charlie Kirk, an outspoken right-wing figure and close Donald Trump ally, was shot dead during a speech to university attendees and Maga supporters at a Utah university. In the absence of proof of the shooter’s identity or intentions, Trump immediately blamed “those on the radical left,” accusing them for using language “directly responsible for the terrorism that we’re seeing across the nation today.”

When questioned about a polarized country could heal after Kirk’s assassination, Trump said he was indifferent”. His explanation for that was chilling: “The radicals on the right act aggressively since they don’t want to see crime … Leftist activists are the problem – being vicious and horrible and strategically clever.” This is how political division transforms into tribalism. Thus cycles of hostility accelerates toward a point of no return.

In reality, more than three-quarters of all extremist-related killings in the US over the last 10 years were perpetrated by rightwing extremists, with the radical left accountable for only a fraction of them. Trump condemned ideologically motivated attacks broadly the following day – but did not acknowledge the recent spate of attacks against Democrats, which involved multiple murders. To him, the issue remains perpetually others, and not the loyal supporters constituting his core followers.

The political and cultural aftershocks from the assassination are certain to emerge in the coming weeks, but the biggest danger in a polarised climate involves this event becomes the historical parallel of our age. That arson attack which occurred in early 1933 marked Germany’s pivot from fragile democracy toward autocratic rule. The Nazi leader, freshly installed as chancellor, capitalized on the incident to extinguish the freedoms under previous governance – free speech, media independence, organizational liberty, assembly.

“Those opposing us will be cut down,” he declared, inspecting the damaged structure. Numerous leftist activists found themselves imprisoned, even elected representatives within the legislature. With the left neutralised, the ruling party swiftly consolidated power.

Within modern America, the tragic killing has captivated the nation, energizing political bases and loyalists, a fact he recognizes. The white supremacist, Matt Forney, clamoured for the arrest of all opposing lawmakers, openly claiming the killing as a pivotal turning point.

The reality is, here is the event that could rescue a struggling administration plagued with significant declines in employment figures, currency devaluation, and real estate turmoil. Trump mourned Kirk like a lost relative, but the rhetoric suggested this would be focused equally on targeting opponents as justice. Right after the murder, Trump promised to pursue “each and every one involved directly or indirectly in this tragedy … including the organisations providing backing.” He singled out a billionaire philanthropist, the American-Hungarian philanthropist and political contributor. He is dangerous,” he informed a news outlet, he deserves imprisonment.”

The motive behind the assassination remains unclear. Ideological leanings of the suspect, 22-year-old Tyler Robinson, appear as muddled as those of another recent perpetrator, the 20 year old who attempted to assassinate the former president at a rally. Is this truly left-wing extremism targeting right-wing figures – or rather the strange, chaotic subculture of online niches spilling into the real world? The slogans engraved upon ammunition shells in Utah read less like a political statement than a crude bricolage of puerile memes and virtual world allusions.

But it is hard not to fear that suppression of dissenting scholars, lawyers, journalists, civil servants, military officers, and judges across the country will intensify. Already, reactions on social media have led to multiple instances of terminations and US state department officials have cautioned non-citizens against endorsing or joking about the murder, instructing consulates to take “appropriate action” toward individuals engaging in such behavior.

Trump has long thrived on chaos and disorder. Where real crises do not exist, he fabricates them – including imagined crime pandemics in Los Angeles, the capital and Chicago. Manufactured unrest advances his ambitions. Now he has been handed an ideal opportunity. It is understandable he shows no concern about national unity.

This incident provides the perfect pretext for tightening his grip, silencing dissent, and concentrating power – enabling future leaders to assume full state control, irrespective of charisma, merit or electoral support. Ultimately, any autocratic system must be established initially; once entrenched, it is simpler to maintain.

Democratic systems and international frameworks are far from perfect, yet they provided peace, advancement and prosperity – the very opposite of dictatorial rule. Implying that America, the architect of the postwar order, might rapidly descend into full-blown autocracy, with rulers adopting historical extremist mindsets, may seem far-fetched.

However, alternatively, it is not far-fetched at all. Totalitarianism was still within living memory when many of us even at the heart of modern democratic Europe were growing up. From Belgium to Bulgaria, numerous households have some history of fatalities, devastation, animosity and poverty resulting from oppressive regimes. To safeguard their near future, they may want to consult historical lessons.