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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.